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Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/Archive 1
Farewell Unless we get a rare storm in December this year, the 2015 Pacific hurricane season has pretty much wrapped up by now. That being said, get ready for a long summary, as this year's Pacific hurricane season had a lot to offer and shattered several records. For starters, it was the second-most active season on record in terms of named storms, falling just one short of 1992's all-time record of 27. It's also tied with last year, 1992, and 1990 for the most active in terms of number of hurricanes, and 2015 beat 1992 for the record for most major hurricanes in one season, with 11, 9 of which were east of the CPac. In terms of ACE, 2015 has the second-highest value ever observed in the basin since reliable record-keeping began, with a total of roughly 282 ACE units for both the EPac and CPac combined. Only 1992 had more, with 295. For the East Pacific alone, we had roughly 158 ACE units, which is the highest number for the EPac proper since 1993 and the 7th highest for the EPac proper overall. For the CPac, we not only had a record 14 storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 majors to exist in the area this year, but 8 storms formed in the CPac, which is twice the previous record of 4 in 1982, and the CPac accrued 124 ACE units which is the highest ACE ever recorded in the CPac, eclipsing the previous record of 107 set in the 1994 season. Blanca was the earliest 2nd (major) hurricane to ever form in the EPac, and it was also the earliest landfall ever recorded on Baja California, eclipsing Calvin of 1993 by a month. Halola became only the second CPac-borne storm to make it to Japan in the West Pacific, and every CPac storm from Iune onward was the earliest, if not only, CPac storm of it's number to form in the calendar year. Hurricanes Kilo, Jimena, and Ignacio marked the first time 3 category 4's, let alone 3's, were simultaneously recorded in the Pacific east of the international dateline. Hurricane Olaf broke the cat 4 record this year (which was further extended by Patricia and Sandra), and it was also the only storm to go from EPac to CPac and then back to the EPac again, as well as being the southernmost (major) hurricane on record in the East Pacific. Perhaps Patricia was the most notable storm of the season, as it intensified at a record pace of 100 milibars in 24 hours under nearly perfect environmental conditions, became the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere in both maximum sustained winds and lowest barometric pressure, and Patricia also had the highest reliably measured 1-minute winds of any tropical cyclone in worldwide history, eclisping Typhoon Haiyan of 2013. Furthermore, it made landfall as a 165 mph category 5 storm, making it the strongest landfalling EPac storm in recorded history, beating the 1959 storm by 5 mph (pending reanalysis) and causing a rather extensive (recently updated) 400 million dollars in damage and 13 deaths where it struck. Hurricane Sandra was a great cap to the season, becoming the latest and strongest major hurricane in the East Pacific, and beating 1992's major hurricane record, but Sandra died before it could make landfall in Mexico, so Hurricane Tara of 1961 still holds the record for the latest landfall in the basin. I'm almost speechless at the immense activity we had this year but that's a super El Nino year for you, expect 2016 to probably be another active Pacific hurricane season as the super El Nino we're in will probably last into this winter and early next spring before transitioning to ENSO-neutral. Ryan1000 04:10, December 4, 2015 (UTC) : This season was really incredible and amazing. I could not believe all the records this season shattered, like the record CPac activity, and Patricia's monster strength! This season is truly going inside the record books. But what if it's not over yet? The GFS has been forecasting a December CPac storm. o_o [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 19:35, December 5, 2015 (UTC) The activity of the EPac and CPac... i can't even stop clapping at this one season. 2015 was a great year for hurricanes (execpt Mexico, you already know why) for the CPac and EPac altogether. I hope we can get another season like this sooner. MarcusSanchez My Own Talk Merry Christmas! 09:54, December 18, 2015 (UTC)MarcusSanchez Retirements at a glance We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado... ;EPAC *Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise. *Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager. *Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement. *Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible. *Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor. *Felicia: https://youtu.be/PxDW8h9kMXs% - Gets an F-. *Guillermo: 4% - Hawaii has requested retirement of storms that have threatened them without ultimately doing any harm (see Kenneth '05, Daniel '06), but if last year's Iselle wasn't retired, Guillermo doesn't stand a chance. *Hilda: 3% - See Guillermo, though it was nice to see the EPAC's first-ever ''Hurricane Hilda, especially by such a wide margin. *Ignacio: 0% - Long-lived and powerful hurricane, but remained away from land. Any peripheral effects in Hawaii were likely negligible at best. *Jimena: 0% - Ignacio Plus. *Kevin: 0% - Not the epic fail it could have been, but becoming stronger than expected doesn't cut it for retirement. *Linda: 23% - Remnants caused the worst flooding disaster in Utah's history, but if 1983's Octave and last year's Norbert didn't get retired, then Linda probably won't either. *Marty: 3% - Wasn't much different from Carlos. *Nora: 0% - Didn't quite fail but was underwhelming nonetheless. *Olaf: 0% - President Snow was awesome. Powerful, long-lasting, southernmost (major) EPAC hurricane on record, first TC ever to cross from EPAC to CPAC and back again, set a record for most C4s in one season, and best of all, it didn't affect land. My favorite storm of this season. *'Patricia:' >50% 73% - I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Patricia already has a decent chance of retirement. It may not have hit land yet, but it would have to weaken by 40 kts to hit Mexico below Cat 5 intensity, 65 kts to hit below Cat 4, and 80 kts to hit as a non-major hurricane... within the next 12 hours. Unless Mother Nature works a miracle, apocalyptic damage is more-or-less inevitable at this point. *:A miracle was worked insofar as Patricia wasn't Armageddon for Mexico, but this was still a severe hurricane. In sparing population and industry centers such as Manzanillo, Patricia completely leveled at least one town near the ground zero of landfall, and damage from flooding has extended well inland. The current death toll of 13 is just below Odile's, and the damage bill of nearly $200 million (and counting) is almost twice as high as what got Kenna the boot. Maybe in past seasons I would've lowballed my percentage a little bit more, but after Manuel, Ingrid and Odile, I have renewed confidence in Mexico's willingness to retire names, so I'm a tad more expecting - though not 100% certain - that Patricia will be retired. *Rick: 0% - Rivaled Felicia intensity-wise, but it did give us one of the latest EPAC storms on record, and made 2015 stand alone as the second-busiest EPAC season on record. ;CPAC *Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry) *Halola: 5% - Gets props for becoming only the second CPAC-borne storm ever to make it to Japan, but effects there were rather light. *Iune: -4% - It failed miserably. *Kilo: 0% - Persistent and triumphant, but those qualities don't merit retirement. *Loke: 1% - Caused blustery weather at the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, but the area came out unscathed. *Malia: 0% - Fail, but it did extend this year's CPAC record to 6 named storms. *Niala: 0% - Didn't hit land and wasn't terribly strong, but dear God, at this rate we'll have more than double the previous record for CPAC named storms set in 1982. *Oho: HolyCrap% - Proved once and for all that the CPAC runs on batteries this year. Certainly an interesting storm to track, if one without many impacts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC) The Steve has spoken: (Retirement colors: 0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) EPac: *Andres: 0% - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise. *Blanca: 2.5% - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there. *Carlos: 5% - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country. *Dolores: 0% - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either. *Enrique: 0% - See you in 2021! *Felicia: 0% - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing! *Guillermo: 0% - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean. *Hilda: 0% - Hawaii never got much from her. *Ignacio: 0% - Completely spared Hawaii from impacts. *Jimena: 0% - Well...she was impressive to track, and lasted a long time, but she'll likely return in 2021. *Kevin: 0% - As far as I know, it didn't affect land at all. *Linda: 1% - Out here in SoCal, she did channel in some moisture and it also produced minor impacts along the Baja coast. But sorry Linda, you'll most likely stay. *Marty: 1% - Impacts to Mexico weren't that much, so he'll stay for next time. *Nora: 0% - Land was never affected by her. *Olaf: 0% - Looks like the snowman is not a threat to land. *Patricia: 65% '''- Got so record powerful that we thought it would be absolutely '''catastrophic at landfall! Well, let's be glad she spared densely population regions from impacts, or this powerful beast would be an instant 99%. Such a bada$$ system; it's one of my favorite hurricanes of all time since it didn't cause as much devastation as originally feared, and reached the largest wind speed measurement ever. *Rick: 0% - He missed land, so he's back in 2021 without a doubt. *Sandra: 0% - She was so powerful for late November and was the strongest on record this late in the year, barely beating Kenneth. But lack of land effects = staying. CPac: *Ela: 0% - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin. *Halola: 0% - Also failed to affect land. *Iune: 0% - Never in a million years. *Kilo: 0% - Got very powerful and it was also a long-lasting beast, being alive for as long as 3 weeks, but lack of impacts = see you next time! *Loke: 0% - Lack of impacts mean it's staying. *Malia: 0% - Again, failed to do bad things to land. And it is another living proof that Mother Nature is making the CPac record-energized this year. *Niala: 0% - The crazy basin produced yet another one, and again, it did not impact any human beings. *Oho: 0% - Another storm in the crazy record-breaking basin which failed to affect land. It did become a moderate hurricane, though. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Puffle's retirements Welp, here I go: ---- Legend ---- (Retirement colors: Fail%, 0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 27%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (Credit to Steve) ---- Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh. Blanca: 2.5% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet... Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ Dolores: 0% - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you Enrique: 0% - Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name. 3rd place of #NameWaste2015. Not tied 2nd because of the ‡. Depression Felicia: Fail% - Nominee and winner of #NameWaste2015. Gullimero - Fail% - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name) Hilda - 0% - Actually, forget that, Hilda you surprised me. Eight-E - No. Just no. Why is this here? IT'S NOT NAMED!!! Ignacio - 1% - Eh... I'll stay here. Jimena - Fish. No. Kevin - Fail% - 2nd place for #NameWaste2015. There better be no more fails after this. Linda - 2% - Welp it existed but failed to be with the other C4s. Marty - 1% - Well, it existed at least. Nora - Bae% - Nora is bae. Bae will do nothing. Nora is unbae. Bae tag is for times i want to be funny. Olaf - ? - Active. The snowman is probably going to be a snow monster. Better call this one "Marshmallow". LOL. Patricia - 99% - Wait, WHAT?! This is abnormal, but 200mph?! This one can be Katrina: Mexico edition. Get ready for Odile 2.0! ---- CPac Names Ela - Fail% - No comment Halola - See my WPac retirements. Iune - Fail% - Wait, what? Kilo - 0% - WHAA? A C4?! IN THE CPAC?! Wow. Loke - Fail% - Another fail, but it broke a record for most CPac names used. And other CPAC storms I won't bother listing. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] ---- Odile's Retirements odile's fun retirement chances with memes (Retirement colors ��%, NaN%, '1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%' (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (thanks steve for the colors) ayy lmao its my turn! Andres: NaN% - meh. Blanca: NaN% - as puffle says above. Carlos: carlos plz% 25% - CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage Dolores: 15%- caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijuana area. Enrique: NaN% - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin' Failelicia: ��% - poop emoji here Eight-E: NaN% - well we nearly broke a record. Guillermo: NaN% - fun to see an hurricane after fails. Hilda: NaN% - OH NO! NO MORE FAILS... ���������� Eleven-E: NaN% - NO WAI! Ignacio: NaN% - REALLY. #StopEPacFails Jimena: NaN% - deez nutz we nearly got a C5 here Kevin the minion: ��% poop emoji here Linda: 7.5% - Linda did nothing, buuuuuut... Marty: 5% - the remnants of it did quite some damage in northen mexico. Nora: Bae% NaN% - bae will not do anything. Olaf: Frozen% ''' '''NaN% - cuz of snowman The, Greatest, Monster, Since, Haiyan, And, Trashed, Linda, Rick, And, Even, Wilma, Patricia: NaN% - '''too damn scary to have a percentage cpac Ela: '''NaN% - WORST. STORM. EVER. Halola: 1% - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here. see ya in a looooooooooooooooooong time! Iune: NaN% - wat Kilo: NaN% - noice nice to see a C4 in the CPac! LIoke: NaN% - meh... Malia: NaN% - ayy lmao a fish Niala: NaN% - HOLY. WHAT. THE. SEASON. Oho: NaN% - no comment... the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC) ---- Now it is time for my predictions: #Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay. #Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well. #Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement. #Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill. #Halola - TBA - Still Active #Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do? #Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too. #Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process. AndrewTalk To Me 00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC) Ryan Grand is back: EPac: *Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired. *Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little. *Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021. *Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most. *Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia. *Failicia - Pun% - << See the name. *Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths. *Hilda - 0% - Did nothing notable to Hawaii, but it was still nice to see it become the first hurricane hilda ever. *Ignacio - 0% - Missed Hawaii well to the north, and won't be retired. *Jimena - 0% - Didn't affect land. *Kevin - 0% - Didn't expect it to fight that much, but it still won't be retired. *Linda - 4% - It's a real shame that this storm couldn't go without impact before dying...but 1 death and a little damage from surf won't cut the bill. And the extratropical flooding in Utah doesn't cut it for retirement either, especially if it didn't for Norbert or Octave. Linda is also the only major hurricane this year that didn't become a cat 4 as well. *Marty - 1% - Brought some coastal flooding to parts of Mexico, but it was nothing that they haven't seen before. *Nora - 0% - If only it became a hurricane... *Olaf - 0% - Didn't affect land, but by becoming the season's 8th category 4 hurricane, Olaf broke a 4-way tie at 7 cat 4's between 1992, 1993, last year, and this year for the most cat 4's ever recorded in one season. That's impressive. *Patricia - 75% - Patricia's record intensity at landfall, let alone record intensity for a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere, and 400 million dollar damage figure for the small coastal towns it annihilated will probably be enough to convince Mexico to retire her. However, Patricia wasn't as bad as Manuel or Odile, and there's a slight chance she might not go, but Patricia was still an extremely severe hurricane nonetheless, and it should be retired. *Rick - 0% - Failed in intensity and impacts, but it is the 4th (6th if you count Omeka '10 and Paka '97) latest EPac storm to ever form, after Winnie '83, Kenneth '11, Sharon '71, and Sandra (below) AND it broke the tie with 1985 to make 2015 (which also used the 1985 season's list) the standalone 2nd-busiest EPac season on record in named storm count, after 1992. *Sandra - 0% - Collapsed due to insanely strong 50-knot wind shear before it could hit Mexico, but Sandra got us just one storm short of tying 1992 for the most active East Pacific season ever recorded, and it set three records - for one, it's the latest major hurricane ever recorded in the East Pacific, becoming one 3 days later than Kenneth of 2011, it's the strongest November hurricane on record in the EPac, surpassing Kenneth, and it's the 11th major hurricane of this season, which is the highest number of major hurricanes ever recorded in one season, beating 1992's previous record of 10. As a side note, it also extended our cat 4 record from 9 to 10. Amazing. CPac: *Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts. *Halola - 1% - Lasted quite a while and eventually made it to Japan, causing 1.2 million in crop damage with no deaths. Not nothing, but not enough either. *Iune - 0% - See Ela. *Kilo - 0% - It was one of the top 10 longest-lived tropical cyclones ever observed, but it didn't cause noticeable impacts on land. *Loke - 0% - Didn't harm land, but damn, 5 CPac named storms in one season. That's a new record. In your face 1982. *Malia - 0% - Aside from extending our (already record-setting) CPac named storm count from 5 to 6, there's nothing else to say here. *Niala - 0% - Spared Hawaii fortunately, but got us to 7 CPac storms in this season. *Oho - 0% - Did not hit Hawaii, but Eight. Central. Pacific. Named. Storms. In. One. Season. Is. Just. Unbelievable. There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC) I could have sworn I already made one of these. Oh, well. Here's mine. EPac: *Andres- 0%: Fun to track and didn't hit land. Nice storm, but it won't be retired *Blanca- 1%: Major hurricane that did cause damage, but not enough to be retired. *Carlos- 5%: One death and $1.1 million, again, it's not going anywhere. *Dolores- 0%: Again, an impressive storm, and minimal damage *Enrique- 0% Nope. *Felicia- 0% Bye Felicia, see you in 2021. What a fail. *Guillermo- 0% majorly hyped, but wound up doing nothing much *Hilda- 0% See Delores, except it caused no damage. *Ignacio: 0% Didn't affect land, but affected my appetite for nachos (sorry, I've made too many nacho jokes haven't I?) *Jimena: 0% Fun to track and lasted a long time, but it's not going anywhere *Kevin: 0% I, unlike others on this wiki, do not consider Kevin a fail, because it was heavily sheared. It tried hard and fought with the shear but didn't make it, so it's not going anwhere. *Linda: 1% It managed to cause one death. *Marty: 0% It was a hurricane, but didn't affect land. *Nora: 0%- Not a fail, but didn't hit land *Snowman:'' Currently active'' *''Patricia: 50%- Ah, bite me. This thing might not have done as much damage as originally feared, and Mexico's terrible retirement standards don't help. Also, due to this storm, I will never'' consider any other storm (except for a Felicia-type storm) a fail, because this is what a "win" storm would do. Also, I'm changing the "Boo!" part of my Halloween signature to "Patricia" because this storm was much scarier. '' CPac:' *Ela- 0%: Well, it existed *Halola- 1%: Did nothing in the CPac but crossed into the WPac and hit Japan, causing $1.2 million. Still Japan has been hit by many storms way worse than this, I doubt they'll even remember it. *Iune:-0%: Meh, at least it didn't do damage *Kilo: 0% Well, well. Kilo is finally dead and is one of the longest-lived storms on record. But, hey if John in 1994 wasn't retired, then Kilo won't be either. See you in whenever, I guess....................... *Loke- 0% It didn't hit land, but it broke the record for most named storms in the CPac. *Malia: 0%. Other than extending our record, it didn't do much. *Niala: 0% See Malia, but it was a bit more impressive *Oho: 0.1% Silly, Oho. You aren't supposed to get to British Coulbia or Alaska, remnants or not. Unless you're a typhoon. Ahem. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 22:55, August 29, 2015 (UTC) :'Delores'? Dolores* [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 15:53, September 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Whoops, my bad. I fixed it. Although, coincidentally the name Dolores was mispelled '''the exact same way' on the naming list in 1991! So apparently I'm not alone. leeboy100My Talk! 23:29, September 8, 2015 (UTC) Raindrop's retirements (Based 100% on rainfall amounts - just kidding) - With interestingness ratings! (Retirement colors: 0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA, or absolutely devestating storms like Katrina (Unlikely to ever occur in EPAC basin) - Thanks to Steve820 for colors. Eastern Pacific: *Andres - 0% - Quite an amazing A storm. Almost as good as Amanda last year. Great start to the season! But it never hit anything, so it's staying. Interestingness (Ins.) A''' *Blanca - '''0.2% - It became a category 4 twice, which was impressive. It made landfall, but minimal damages means no retirement. Ins. A+ *Carlos - 2% - Carlos affected a lot of the coast of Mexico. However, damage was only $1.1 million, it should be staying. Ins. B-''' *Dolores - '''0% - Another category 4 that hit nothing. It didn't last very long. Ins. A-''' *Enrique - '''0% - The first EPAC storm this year that was not a hurricane. It lasted a good amount of time and became a tropical storm twice, and no damage. Ins. C''' *Failicia - '''-1% - Epic failure of a storm. It almost didn't form, then decided to steal a name. And it didn't hit anything. Ins. F''' *Gulliermo - '''0% - A category 2 hurricane that could have done damage to Hawaii but weakened before reaching it. Ins. B''' *Hilda - '''0% - Became a category 4, defying forecasts, which was amazing. And it didn't hit anything. Ins. A''' *Ignacio - '''0% - It didn't hit anything, but it's rapid intensification and re-intensifying into a hurricane at high latitudes was amazing. Ins. A+ *Jimena - 0% - A beautiful hurricane that became powerful and lasted a long time, and hit nothing. Ins. A+ **Post-season changes: 130 kts --> 135 kts - 30% - There's some chance that Jimena almost became a category 5 during either of it's peaks when it looked beautiful on satellite. *Kevin - 0% - It did it's best against the wind shear it was in, but it was too much for it to become a hurricane. No land effects. Ins. C''' *Linda - '''0.1% - A hurricane that existed, became a major, and dissipated in under a week. Did effect land a bit, but $30,000 in damages is nothing. Ins. B+ *Marty - 0% - A storm that breifly became a hurricane and managed to move near Mexico without doing significant damage. Ins. B-''' *Nora - '''0% - It was something to track, and became a strong tropical storm. Not something that will be remembered though. Ins. C''' *Olaf - '''0% - An amazing, powerful, and southerly fishspinner that along with being a southerly category 4 hurricane also became the third offical hurricane to cross from the CPAC to the EPAC basin. And it never hit any land. Ins. A+ *Patricia - 40% - The strongest hurricane ever, and made landfall as a category 5 hurricane. However, damage totals were not totally horrendous, with $282 million in damage, as hurricane-force winds, much less category 5 winds missed major cities. Maybe Patricia listened to people's prayers and made landfall in a less populated area. I'm giving Patricia a 40% chance at retirement because it wasn't absolutely horrible. I'd give an even lower chance if it wasn't for the intensity of the hurricane both at sea and at landfall. Ins. A+++ *Rick - 0% - It didn't hit anything, and the only reason it's not a fail is because it's November. Ins. D+ **Post-season changes: 35 kts --> 40 kts - 50% - I do think Rick reached 40 knots at one point when T-Numbers reached 3.0 and it's satellite presentation was pretty good, and so it could be upped in intensity like Grace in the Atlantic was recently in the post-season analysis. *Sandra - 0% - Quite an amazing storm, although it was short-lived, like Patricia. It became a category 4 hurricane in late November, and became the strongest November hurricane. However, shear ripped it up before it hit land, and the remnant low still hasn't managed to reach the coast with all the shear. Because Sandra was torn up before it reached the coast, it's staying. Ins. A''' Central Pacific: *Ela - '''0% - The first storm in the Central Pacific. That's about it. Ins. D-''' *Halola - '''1% - Managed to make it all the way to Japan, becoming a typhoon 2 times on the way - and did almost nothing. An amazing storm though. Ins. A''' *Iune - '''-1% - It was a tropical storm that is not memorable. Ins. F''' *Kilo - '''0% - A category 4 in the Central Pacific, an unusual thing. Then after becoming a category 4 it became a typhoon and lasted over 3 weeks total. It never hit anything until it was long extratropical, and there were no notable impacts from that. Ins. A+ *Loke - 0% - A hurricane in the Central Pacific, more interesting then a weak tropical storm in the central pacific. Also had an erratic northward track. It also hit nothing. It ALSO set the record for storms forming in the CPAC. Ins. B-''' *Malia - '''0% - At least it became a tropical storm. Ins. D-''' *Niala - '''0% - This was fun to track, and defied forecasts some. They also mentioned that it had been stronger then thought in the discussion, so it might be upgraded to 70 or 75 mph post-season. No land effects. Ins. B-''' *Oho - '''0% - Well, it almost managed to enter the EPAC basin. Olaf would have been more fitting for this storm which went to hit Alaska as an ET storm. Ins. A-''' '''~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:38, October 28, 2015 (UTC) It's about time I post mine: '''''EPAC *Andres: 0% - Great start to the season, but he was a fishie. *Blanca: 1% - Minor damages only, she's staying. *Carlos: 3% - It could've been way worse for Mexico. *Dolores: 0% - Again, nice Cat4, but no damages or fatalities. *Enrique: 0% - Nope. *Felicia: 0% - Let's see...NOPE. *Guillermo: 1% - Don't count on it, but Hawaii is unpredictable. *Hilda: 0% - Another Category 4 monster, but no major effects. *Ignacio: 1% - Amazing hurricane that traveled at high latitudes, his awesomeness gives him 1%. *Jimena: 0% - Beautiful hurricane, but like Andres, Dolores, and Hilda, she's gonna be back in 2021. *Kevin: 0% - He tried the best he could, but he'll also be back. *Linda: 1% - She may have contributed a bit to the Utah floods, but the damages aren't enough. *Marty: 0% - I highly doubt it, although there were some effects on Mexico. *Nora: 0% - No. *Olaf: 1% - Mr. Snowman didn't impact anybody. *Patricia: 70% - Holy shit was she an epic hurricane, in fact the strongest ever recorded which is a quite impressive feat by itself. She wasn't as bad as expected in Mexico, but honestly after the hype and the fact it caused some significant damage will likely convince them to retire the name. *Rick: 0% - What a failure storm, despite the fact it added to the overall totals of the season. CPAC *Ela: 0% - She may have become the third earliest tropical storm to form in the CPac but that doesn't warrant removal off of the naming list. *Halola: 5% - She made it all the way to Japan and produced some damage, but not quite enough. *Iune: 0% - No. *Kilo: 1% - Another impressive hurricane, but he isn't going to be retired either. *Loke: 0% - Became a hurricane, but didn't go anywhere. *Malia: 0% - Nah. *Niala: 0% - No. *Oho: 1% - He gets a percentage point for impressiveness. I'll update this if any other storms form through the remainder of the season. Owen 01:07, October 17, 2015 (UTC) Post-season changes Andres's TCR was released a while ago, and Felicia's was completed last week. Andres's winds were reduced slightly from 130 kts to 125 (no advisory had Andres at 130 kts, but it was mentioned in one of the discussions that Andres was believed to have peaked at that intensity in between advisories), but its pressure was nudged downward from 938 mbar to 937. Nothing new came with Felicia's TCR. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:00, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : I wish Jimena was a little stronger operationally, but it's very unlikely post-season reanalysis will upgrade it to a 5 like it could've been, but it could be upped slightly to 155 mph in either one of its peaks. I don't think there's any other storm this year that I have hopes for being upgraded in reanalysis (as of yet). Ryan1000 19:07, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : 8-E, Enrique's TCR are out. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 20:21, September 19, 2015 (UTC) ::Looks like CPHC TCRs won't come out until 2017 at this point.--Isaac829 20:30, October 6, 2015 (UTC) :::Guillermo is out. Peak intensity raised to 95 kts/967 mbar, meaning it came just shy of major hurricane status. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:07, October 10, 2015 (UTC) PMC (my fake hurricane center) has released TCR for Failelicia, Downgraded to Depression Felecia. (Kept the name.) Argh. forgot to sign...[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 19:29, October 21, 2015 (UTC) the most hyped TCR might be Patricia's. we could see our first sub 870mb storm based on recon --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:29, October 24, 2015 (UTC) : Dolores and Carlos are out, along with Hilda. No notable, if any, changes with any of them. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:26, November 6, 2015 (UTC) ::: Linda's TCR is out. Although it remains a strong category 3, the NHC mentions it could have been slightly stronger at it's peak intensity. It's pressure was also lowered a little to 950 mb. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:31, November 29, 2015 (UTC) ::::Blanca is out, and was a bit stronger than operationally estimated. Winds raised from 120 kts to 125, pressure lowered from 943 mbar to 936. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:20, November 30, 2015 (UTC) :::::Kevin is out as well. Peak intensity is unchanged (which surprises me, considering that the RBT once put Kevin at 55 kts/995 mbar IIRC), but it became a TS far earlier than operationally estimated, raising its ACE from 1.7625 to 2.3175. Additional increases in ACE have come from the TCRs of Guillermo, Hilda, Linda and Blanca, raising the ACE of this season to 282.21 across the EPAC proper and the CPAC. Amazing. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:17, December 1, 2015 (UTC) :::::You should count just the Epac like the NHC do. As the CPAC is a completely different basin.Allanjeffs 22:04, December 2, 2015 (UTC) :::::::The CPac is usually considered as a subset for the EPac since they have never gotten so many named storms in one year before 2015. One could make a "2015 Central Pacific hurricane season" article or forum, but 2015 was an exceptionally active year for the basin, and most prior seasons have had few or no storms form in the CPac before. While NHC considers them separate, NOAA and the WMO don't. Ryan1000 00:26, December 3, 2015 (UTC) Nora is out. Sadly it remained a 60 kt/993 mbar tropical storm; would've been nice to see a post-analysis upgrade give 2015 the record for most hurricanes. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:32, December 10, 2015 (UTC) : Nora reached peak intensity in the CPAC basin, and that part of it's TCR is not out yet, so there's still a chance. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:08, December 10, 2015 (UTC) : Why must the NHC be so slow with TCR's? It's been 3 weeks and no new TCR's... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:36, December 31, 2015 (UTC) : :everybody is rekt. 185kn/872mb for Patricia. too bad its C5 landfall is removed --HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 18:37, February 4, 2016 (UTC) ::As has the 1959 Mexico hurricane's landfall - with both that and Patricia being downgraded at landfall, we actually have not yet seen a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the EPAC, though Patricia still retains the landfall record (130 kts). The new peak intensity of 872 mbar makes Patricia the second-most-intense tropical cyclone ever recorded, only behind Tip. That's just unreal... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:52, February 4, 2016 (UTC) ::::Didn't really expect this, not only is Patricia second to Tip for being the trongest TC ever in pressure but the winds were upped to 215 mph, 20 higher than Haiyan's previous world record. Even though it got downgraded at landfall, 150 mph and 932 mbars at landfall still make it the strongest lanfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico in recorded history, let alone in the EPac. NHC also stated in the TCR that Patricia's pressure could've been lower than Tip's for a brief time period, but was never directly measured by recon. If it was, then this would've been the strongest tropical cyclone in worldwide history. Ryan1000 19:28, February 4, 2016 (UTC) :::::The interesting thing is that now Patricia's winds are so high that they not only bested Haiyan's record, they tied Nancy's. Considering the fact that Nancy was in that period of time in the WPac where wind readings were generally unreliable, Patricia A) proved that Nancy could have legit reached that intensity, reading or no, and B) that if the reading is thrown out (and likely will if the basin ever gets reanalysis), Patricia legitimately reached Nancy's suspect 215 mph. That's just amazing to me. Jake52 (talk) 01:42, February 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::I did not expect Patricia to be upgraded to the second strongest tropical cyclone ever! Before Patricia, I was thinking that Nancy's record was impossible, and then Patricia pulled it off. The post-season analysis also gives Patricia another record - fastest weakening over water in the Western Hemisphere. If Patricia hadn't weakened at a rate faster than it strengthened over water, it would have been much worse. Amazing how it might have been the strongest TC of all time for about 30 minutes. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 16:28, February 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::Ok, that was quite unexpected. 215 mph for this storm is tied with the unreliable Nancy windspeed for the strongest in a tropical cyclone. It's for sure the strongest TC ever recorded in terms of reliable windspeed; the pressure record is still retained by Tip though. I believe there might be a possibility Patricia might have had a pressure even lower than 872 mbar for a short amount of time, making it the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in history. It's just insane how the storm pulled this stunt off. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 06:45, February 8, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::O.O What? I have no words. Holy shit, this is unreal. Second strongest cyclone on record. Wow. Leeboy100Hello! 23:13, February 8, 2016 (UTC) Now Sandra is out, too. Slightly stronger than operationally estimated; 130 kts, 934 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:17, February 9, 2016 (UTC) :Looks like the NHC is on a hot streak for TCRs! Jimena is out and it nearly reached Category 5 strength. Peak intensity raised to 135 kts/932 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:36, February 10, 2016 (UTC) :::With Jimena released, the only ones missing in the EPac are Olaf and 11-E. Erika (the ATL's last one) came out two days ago. We might have to wait another year before all the CPac's TCR's are done though, considering their record-active season. 'Ryan1000' 20:40, February 10, 2016 (UTC) ::::I'd give CPHC 3 years to catch up to the end of 2015, since they aren't finished with 2014.--Isaac829 04:08, February 12, 2016 (UTC) :::::We're still missing Iune (surprisingly), Kilo, and Ignacio's CPac portion. ~ 'KN2731' {talk} 03:39, December 27, 2017 (UTC) ::::::Welcome to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.--Isaac829 05:44, December 27, 2017 (UTC) Iune out, not many changes.--Isaac829 22:23, April 25, 2018 (UTC) :Ignacio's CPac portion came out some time ago. Now only Kilo is left. ~ 'KN2731' {talk} 04:21, September 8, 2018 (UTC) ::And like I said three years ago, Kilo is out three years later. It was finished in October 2018, but it was on the website until February 2019.--Isaac829 04:15, April 18, 2019 (UTC) :::Loke, 08C, Halola and Iune are out. Four years. --'' JavaHurricane 02:44, November 22, 2019 (UTC) Replacement Names Since Patricia could be retired at this point, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Patricia? Interestingly, if this becomes retired, it would be the first replacement name in the EPac to be retired, as Patricia replaced Pauline after 1997. Some of my suggestions are here: *Penelope *Pam(ela) *Pandora *Phoebe *Phyllis *Pearle/Perla/Pearlina *Puebla Thoughts? 'Ryan1000' 10:47, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :Phoebe sounds like a good replacement name. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 12:48, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::My personal picks would probably be either Pamela or Penelope, but Pearl, Phyllis, and Phoebe aren't bad options either. 'Ryan1000' 13:17, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::i support Pamela. (Puebla is just plain wrong. its an name for a mexican city and state of the same name) --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:27, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::I'll go with Pamela or Phyllis. Priscilla is another choice too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:51, October 28, 2015 (UTC) I would choose Phoebe and Phyllis. MarcusSanchez My Own Talk Administrator of HHW 18:24, October 25, 2015 (UTC)MarcusSanchez : Uh, Anonymous, there's already a Priscilla on the lists (remember that 2013 epic fail TS?). It will be used again in 2019. And Peubla would not be that good of a choice, either, due to the Mexican province and city. Personally, I'd choose Phoebe, Pamela, or Phyllis out of Ryan's list. It would also be nice to see "Pandora" but I'm not sure about that due to the music service of the same name :P [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 01:08, October 29, 2015 (UTC) : Pamela was retired in the WPac though (I'm not sure, but Pamela was replaced by Peggy in 1986... the last use of Pamela was in 1982 though), so maybe Phyllis or even Pam (although that would just remind us of the SHem cyclone earlier this year) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:30, November 3, 2015 (UTC) I think Pamela of 1982 was really retroactively retired in respect of the Typhoon Pamela that thrashed Guam in May 1976, but I can't be sure. If that's the case, then we in the U.S. might not want Pamela (since Guam is a U.S. territory), so Phoebe, Phyllis and Penelope would be better. 'Ryan1000''' 00:23, November 4, 2015 (UTC) And there it is, Patricia has been retired (along with Erika and Joaquin in ATL). They selected Pamela though, Ryan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:25, April 27, 2016 (UTC)